Last year, at about this time I published some predictions and I thought I’d review how accurate I was. First off, the things I got correct, then those I kinda got correct, and then those which were rubbish.
1) Uncontroversially, I predicted that Labour would lose the General Election, but that the Tories do not win it. I was correct in predicting that this would result in a coalition between the Lid Dems and the Tories. 2) Part of this prediction was based on the recovering building pace throughout 2010. The economy certainly did improve, but as predicted, not well enough to get me a decent job. 3) Perhaps more controversial at the time, I predicted another round of fiscal stimulus, and although I was wrong in prediciting it would be passed via budget reconciliation, I was correct that it was delivered.
That’s what I got right. I was middling on a few other predicti0ns. 1) I jumped the gun on the failure of a referendum on introducing AV; however, I was correct that an AV referendum would be scheduled. We remain to see whether this referendum will succeed or not. 2) I predicted a right wing blogosphere torn apart by fraternal infighting and a leftwing blogosphere in ascendency. The left is certainly doing well, but the right wing blogosphere seems to be marked by boring relative decline rather than entertaining implosion. 3) I predictioned there would be no more major terroist incidents in the west, but I was wrong to say that major piracy in the Gulf of Aden and its subsequent militarisation would leave to trouble in Yemen. Trouble in Yemen appears to be happening anyway.
I was wrong in my more international predictions, perhaps showing I’m not as clever as I thought. 1) Whereas there was much labour unrest in China (when isn’t there) it did not reach the scale, nor provoke the harsh crackdown I predicted. 2) Iran saw no democratic (or at least anti-autocratic) revolution, a prediction I am sad to have got wrong. 3) Likewise, my prediction that an Orwellian memo being leaked proved wrong. The idea that a “Doubt is out Product” style document is out there by prominent Climate Change denial outfit remains my belief, but we may never find it. 4)
My final prediction is neither right, wrong, or middling, I think it is just premature. I predicted that we were poised on the brink of some major immigrant scapegoating in 2010, that didn’t materialise (in fact, the BNP were routed). However, I don’t think I am wrong here, I just thing 2011 is the year. I have no plans at the moment to make further predictions, but consider that a preliminary outing – 2011 will not be a good year to be a foreigner in the UK.