Predictions Predictions

Ten Predictions for 2010.

  1. Labour lose the General Election, but the Tories do not win it. Lib Dems form a coalition Government with the Tories.
  2. Despite the Lib Dems acting like petulant Kingmakers we still fail to secure a decent electoral system in the UK. A referendum for AV+ is rejected in the winter on a low turnout and electoral reform is put back a decade.
  3. The rightwing blogosphere is torn apart between those cheerleading Camaroonianism and those lamenting that it is too left wing. Iain Dale and a major right winger fall out. The centre-leftosphere stagnates however the leftosphere and farleftosphere continue to grow and becomes increasingly influential as the public become disillusioned with the Tories.
  4. The UK’s economy picks up in early 2010, well enough to lead to a hung Parliament in the 2010 elections as Labour pick up some swing seats, but not good enough to get me a good job.
  5. In the US the Democrats use the budget reconciliation process to pass further stimulus spending, meaning they don’t need to deal with the Democrats of Joe Lieberman filibustering.
  6. China is rocked by massive Labour unrest. With the eyes of the international community on the China still opts for massive repression and anti-union legislation, although this is not Tienanmen II. China gambles the West values cheap clothes higher than human rights, and wins.
  7. There is not another major Islamist terrorist attack in the skies or on land in the West (bombings continue regularly in Afpak and other countries in the middle east) however a major pirate incident takes place of Somalia. This leads to increasing militarisation of the Gulf of Aden and the Western  Indian Ocean. Unfortunately this leads to growing radicalism in the Arabian peninsula, particularly in Yemen.
  8. Iran witnesses another revolution. For most of 2010 it is not entirely clear whether the Ayatollah, Ahmedinejad, the Revolutionary Guard or Mousavi has been victorious. Obama, thankfully, resists all calls from the right to intervene but is punished in the 2010 Congressional elections for doing the right thing. He is painted as “weak,” however, only time will tell.
  9. A memo is leaked much along the same lines as the Doubt is out Product from a prominent Climate Change denial outfit.
  10. Although the economic recovery is stronger than expected to begin with, as Tory cuts bite a scapegoat is needed. Despite immigration being low as a result of the weak economy the Tories and the Tabloids enter a Faustian pact to demonise non-EU migration. Labour return to the principled opposition seen in the early 1990s but are weakened by a decade of anti-migrant rhetoric.
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