Left Outside

So. Much. Stupid. Conservative blind spots edition

Alex Tabarrok

Hey, black dudes! Its great having a big willy! Why you get so mad?! Us white guys are complimenting you!

Okay, that’s not what he said. But he did say this of Asians:

Alex Tabarrok

Hive mind is not even an insult it’s a compliment – like wisdom of the crowds. The hive mind diffuses knowledge and cooperates–it’s not all thinking alike it’s all using the best of each.

Perhaps I better back up a little and give all this a little context.

Noah Smith wrote a post saying that an academic paper  on A Garett Jones paper called “National IQ and National Productivity: The Hive Mind Across Asia“. When I hear about IQ and economic development I reach for my pistol. Noah Smith is just as sceptical. Personally, I don’t see the mechanism. As Chris Dillow says, there are models and mechanisms. You can come up with a pretty model and then become angry when the world deviates from it or you can think about how your pet theory would work its way through the real world.

I can understand a mechanism that uses slight changes in IQ to predict which “nation” will develop first. I’ll describe the one I have in my mind. There are thousands of institutional forms –  “rules of the game” – and only a few of them are compatible with economic growth and prosperity. A higher IQ gives a group 1) a wider the selection of institutional forms to choose between 2) those institutional forms will on average be more complicated 3) better institutions are more likely to be chosen 4) once successful institutions are identified a more intelligent group will be more likely to keep them.

That is an interesting model, but it doesn’t seem to bare any resemblance to the history of the world. The more accurate picture is that various interest groups fought it out in various different places until, in north western Europe a powerful merchant group came into the ascendency and won political concessions that secured their property rights. This happened to have happened after the political revolution following black death in which western European peasants won a degree of autonomy and near some coal. That combination of secure private property, freeish though expensive labour and cheap energy happened to produce sustained economic growth. Nobody planned it because they were smart. It wasn’t sustained because it was smart by the best of my knowledge either. Because Europe was the most violent place in the world, everyone had to strive towards economic growth or face political annihilation. So greed, luck and violence seem far more important to the first sustained initiation of economic growth than IQ.

Similarly, why are some nations wealthy now and some not? Well there is again a similar model where clever nations adopt good institutions and stupid ones don’t, merely out of ignorance, but that doesn’t seem to be the mechanism we observe. Very poor places had their institutions fucked up by white people – psst, that’s Africa, Latin America, China, India etc. – and it takes a long time to get it together after an occupation and negative structural shock. National IQ sounds racist, and while I concede it might have some predictive power with regard to who’s developed, it doesn’t accord with most of the other mechanisms we have for where economic growth comes from – so I’m fairly happy to dismiss it.

So it is into this milieu we jump.

Noah argues that the paper discussed, by Garett Jones, uses lots of racist tropes and should handled with care. He provides some evidence contrary to the predictions of the paper of varying degrees of convincingness. Scott Sumner, whom I respect greatly, hits back that there is a great deal of explanatory power in culture and that Noah shouldn’t throw around the word racist because it is a bad thing. The only problem is that nobody was talking about culture, they were talking about racially innate IQs, and their explanatory power with regards to economic growth. And that brings us to Alex Tabarrok’s comment, at the top of this post and left underneath Scott’s saying how a “hive mind” is a good thing.

This gets to the heart of the real problem.

For some reason, those on the left can see the context in which things happen in a way those on the right cannot. Noah isn’t too left wing, but he seems to have this special power (and attribute of the left wing hive mind, no doubt).

Because for conservatives it often seems context means nothing. I mean seriously; when, in any cultural artefact ever created, any film, novel, piece of art, daydream or utopian novel has a “hive mind” been presented in a positive light? From Zamyatin’s We, to Huxley’s Brave New World a hive mind is not presented as something good. The hive mind does not refer to the wisdom of crowds.

Lets go back to black people, because its easier to talk about racism against blacks. What has been one of the most persistent racist tropes about black people? That they are sexually promiscuous, even sexually aggressive. This is why white people going on about black guys large cocks is usually racist in content, and often racist in its implications. For a female example, the Hottentot Venus wasn’t exhibited for Londoners to gawp at just because white people were/are racist, but because they were/are racist in particular ways. The ways in which people are racist must colour the way in which we view statements.

Context matters. Asians have been stereotyped as sneaky, corrupt, uniform, “hive mind” automatons for over a  century. You still see it in most western reports of strikes and social unrest in China – shocked, shocked reporters that Chinese people are rebelling against their bosses or bureaucrats. Jamie covers Mass Gathering Incidents frequently and there is a good article length treatment of labour unrest here. Hive mind? Tell that to Foxconn. Considering a racist slur in context is not hard, it takes effort in fact to abstract away from the negative connotations of most racist slurs, yet conservatives do so all too often.

This is sometime around the 1970s conservatives realised they were losing the fight for intolerance, so they changed tactics and tried to reframe the debate. They were no longer arguing in favour of racism, oh no, they were arguing against over earnest antiracism. This was politically convenient for two main reasons.  One, lots of the ground work of antiracism was carried out by those on the left. Two, it gave racists someone to vote for. Now in the UK Labour had an at best mixed record on race, especially with regard to housing policy, but during the 1980s they were much more focussed on antiracism. During the same period conservatives began to create a victim mentality where attacking antiracism became more important than attacking racism.

Alex Tabbarrok might like the idea of being part of a hive mind. And some white men might like the idea of being sexually promiscuous with a mighty, large penis. But to completely ignore over a century of casual and institutional racism is plain stupid. But it is a pattern conservatives find themselves slipping into too often: attacking antiracism more virulently than racism. This post is less than completely satisfactory, but I’ll leave it there, and pick up in the comments if necessary.

Filed under: Economics, History, Politics, Society, , , , , , , , ,

A funny definition of the resource curse

If you’ve got some natural resource within your borders, one that lots of people want to buy, then you end up getting lots of foreign money being changed into your local currency as people buy that resource. That drives your exchange rate up and thus strangles everything except that natural resource.

That isn’t the resource curse, that’s Dutch Disease, so named because after the Dutch discovered Gas all their other businesses became uncompetitive. The resource curse is more complex than that.

Currency appreciation may be bad for producing and exporting things, but it is very good for consuming and importing things. Both of these things are good things to do, it is all about degree. To call either circumstance a curse is a misnomer. Consuming things is the point of economics, were it not why invest in a gamble to consume more in the future?

No, I think currency appreciation is a significantly smaller part of the resource curse than is the fact that the presence of valuable resources make it more profitable for elites of one shade or another to seize political and economic control of a country’s institutions.

Acemoglu and Robinson have a blog all about this.

Having an overvalued currency might depress output in a few exporting sectors a bit, having competing meglomaniacs try to take over your country will crush economic activity everywhere.

The most important thing a developing country can do is to enforce fair rules in a predictable way, natural resources and the super profits available from their sale, make it incredibly easy for one group or another to evade, subvert or supplant the law.

Filed under: Economics, , , , , ,

When NGDP is Depressed, Employment is Depressed

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