…but if the Economist want to hire me then all they have to do is ask.
India has not grown as dynamically as China has, and the last decade has seen a clear divergence between the successful India and the very successful China. In the medium to long term however, we are likely to see each system stress tested; for a variety of reasons I think it is very likely India will prevail in any contest.
Despite the headlines, India is doing rather well. Its economy is expected to expand by 8.5% this year. It has a long way to go before it is as rich as China—the Chinese economy is four times bigger—but its growth rate could overtake China’s by 2013, if not before (see article). Some economists think India will grow faster than any other large country over the next 25 years.
Were I not so ambivalent towards intellectual property I’d be seeing if Jack of Kent would help me sue for piracy pro bono.
Scott Sumner is also thinking along similar lines.
Last year the professors at George Mason asked me for my most outrageous belief. Initially I couldn’t think of one; I thought my views on the Fed were sufficiently outrageous. (Of course that’s before Fed officials themselves started calling current policy “restrictive.”) I finally ended up with a post predicting that India would have the largest economy in the world 100 years from now. Unfortunately, events are moving so fast that this prediction no longer seems outrageous enough, and I plan to move the date much closer to the present.